The sports contrarian will always fade the public. It turns out they are on to something with that strategy. Those that go against the grain tend to make profitable decisions when it comes to betting on sports and in baseball in particular. While we wouldn’t recommend betting blindly against the public, the basic strategy could help you gain an edge when betting on baseball. Here is a look at why it makes sense to fade the public with Sunday Night Baseball bets.

The Numbers

Sunday Night Baseball offers a unique opportunity to bet against the public as a standalone game. The fact that there isn’t any other game going on at that time allows us to work with a bigger sample size when it comes to the public’s opinion. Since 2005, there have only been seven Sunday Night Baseball games with fewer bets than the daily average. That volume is the key to the success we will have fading the public since it can help push the line. The numbers show that anybody that bet against the public on Sunday Night Baseball when there is at least a one-cent reverse line move. When the number of public bets is 50% of the moneyline tickets, the success rate of the underdogs is around 50%. That translates to a profitable Return on Investment since the underdogs are available at plus-money while the favorites require you to risk more than you will win. The fact that you would hit on 50% of your wagers if you blindly bet on the Sunday Night Baseball underdog in situations where 50% of the public money is on the favorite is testament to the potential profitability of this strategy. By adjusting your decisions based on the number of public bets made and using other factors to improve your chances of winning each bet, you can improve your odds of winning even more.

The Strategy

The reality is that the underdogs in baseball tend to be a lot more profitable than underdogs in other sports. The large sample size of the baseball season provides plenty of opportunities to bet on underdogs and since even some of the worst teams still win around 40-percent of their games it is definitely something to capitalize on. Sunday Night Baseball offers a unique opportunity since that one game is the focus of the night. While you can guarantee a small profit by blindly betting the underdogs in Sunday Night Baseball, you can really ramp up your bottom line by putting in the necessary research and making smart picks.

Outlook

The baseball season takes center stage throughout the summer months. That means when Sunday night rolls around there likely isn’t much to bet on in the sports world. Considering the numbers, it only makes sense that you would want to bet on Sunday the night games throughout the summer. Take the time to break down the matchups and figure out the best bets and you can really build up your profit margins betting on Sunday Night Baseball.