The NCAA tournament is a tricky thing to bet on, even by the unpredictable standards of sporting events. The event is huge, and one of its hallmarks is that shocking upsets are going to cut short seasons that look destined for greatness. We just don’t know the who and when in that equation, and it makes picking games a brutal task. Not all 68 teams in the field have a real chance to win it all, but everyone could lose whenever.

Oddsmakers think Duke and North Carolina, the bitter ACC rivals, are the likeliest teams to win six games and the national championship. You can track game odds throughout the tournament here, via our partner OddsShark.

The 11 teams with the best odds, via offshore bookmaker Bovada:

Duke: 13/2
North Carolina: 13/2
Kansas: 15/2
Villanova: 15/2
Gonzaga: 17/2
Arizona: 9/1
Kentucky: 10/1
UCLA: 12/1
Louisville: 16/1
Oregon: 22/1
Purdue: 22/1

Bettors are really into Duke, which just won the ACC tournament and has rounded nicely into form after underachieving for so much of the season. An emailed statement from Kevin Bradley, Bovada’s sports book manager, said Duke was taking 10 percent of all bets to win the national title.

This is a rough estimate, but if you’re betting on anyone below Louisville at 16/1, you’re really taking a leap of faith. There are some opportunities for big value, though.

A team like Wichita State or Wisconsin, at 66-to-1, could make things interesting enough that you’d start to get really excited about a huge payout. Oklahoma State is a 10th seed and at 100-to-1, but the Pokes do have the nation’s top offense by adjusted efficiency. It’s enormously unlikely but not impossible that they’d catch fire and score their way to a national title. (I’m not advising you bank on this, of course.)

Here are the odds, via Bovada, for the other 57 teams in the field:

Michigan: 25/1
West Virginia: 25/1
Baylor: 28/1
Florida: 33/1
Florida State: 33/1
Virginia: 33/1
Iowa State: 40/1
Notre Dame: 40/1
SMU: 40/1
Butler: 66/1
Wichita State: 66/1
Wisconsin: 66/1
St. Mary’s CA: 75/1
Cincinnati: 100/1
Maryland: 100/1
Michigan State: 100/1
Minnesota: 100/1
Oklahoma State: 100/1
Creighton: 150/1
South Carolina: 150/1
Northwestern: 200/1
Rhode Island: 200/1
Virginia Tech: 200/1
Arkansas: 250/1
Kansas State: 250/1
Miami: 250/1
Middle Tennessee: 250/1
Providence: 250/1
Seton Hall: 250/1
USC: 250/1
VCU: 250/1
Vanderbilt: 250/1
Wake Forest: 250/1
Xavier: 250/1
Dayton: 300/1
Marquette: 300/1
Nevada: 500/1
Princeton: 500/1
Bucknell: 1000/1
East Tennessee State: 1000/1
Florida Gulf Coast: 1000/1
Iona: 1000/1
Jacksonville State: 1000/1
Kent State: 1000/1
Mount St. Mary’s: 1000/1
NC Central: 1000/1
NC Wilmington: 1000/1
New Mexico State: 1000/1
New Orleans: 1000/1
North Dakota: 1000/1
Northern Kentucky: 1000/1
South Dakota State: 1000/1
Texas Southern: 1000/1
Troy: 1000/1
UC Davis: 1000/1
Vermont: 1000/1
Winthrop: 1000/1

If you’re one of the people who bets on the Big Dance and gets it right, congratulations to you. It’s not an easy task.

Source : SBnation