All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.
Season record: 83-58 (59%) following a 15-7-1 Week 8. 25 games over .500 is a better year than I expected.
This will be a really fun weekend. And with almost all of the great games at 3:30 p.m. ET, you’ll also be able to watch the World Series.
1. Tulane +11 at Memphis: Memphis’ rushing defense is simply not very good, and Tulane is a well-coached option football team.
2. Florida State -3 at Boston College: The time to bet on Boston College was before the Eagles ripped off consecutive 40-point offensive performances against Power 5 teams for the first time in a decade, not now.
3. NC State +7.5 at Notre Dame: I have had a great feel for betting Notre Dame this year, but the Irish have had incredible turnover luck, and the Wolfpack defensive line is awesome.
4. Penn State at Ohio State -6: I love Urban Meyer in big games, especially off a bye. Ohio State’s offense has been clicking of late.
5. Tennessee +5 at Kentucky: I know. I KNOW. But Kentucky has been damn near the luckiest team in the country so far, and it just got blasted by Mississippi State by about the same amount that Tennessee lost to Alabama.
6. Buffalo +5.5 at Akron: I think Buffalo is going to win this game outright, so I am taking them with the points.
7. Florida Atlantic -7 at Western Kentucky: FAU put up more than 800 yards last week. That’s no fluke. The Owls can score in bunches and cover this number.
8. Missouri -12.5 at UConn: Missouri can put up a lot of points, and UConn is just brutal. I think this is a fight of differing weight classes.
9. UNLV +21.5 at Fresno State: I have successfully bet on Fresno State for back-to-back weekends, but it is time to hop off at this number.
10. New Mexico -1.5 at Wyoming: Bob Davie’s team gets off the skid.
11. Mississippi State PK at Texas A&M: Mississippi State has the linemen to stand up to the Aggies in the trenches and can simply outscore Texas A&M on the outside.
12. USC -3 at Arizona State: I’ve backed Arizona State at home several times this year with great success, but this is such a short price that I cannot pass on the Trojans.
13. Louisiana Monroe at Idaho -3: Gimme the Vandals at home to cover this week, with the Warhawks on a long road trip.
14. Texas at Baylor +9: What about Texas’ offense suggests it should be laying more than a touchdown on the road against any Big 12 team other than Kansas?
15. Texas State at Coastal Carolina -7.5: Texas State is clearly overmatched against all FBS opponents this year, except UTEP.
16. Miami at North Carolina +20.5: North Carolina is banged up, but this is just so many points for Miami to lay on the road. It’s also a lookahead spot, as the Hurricanes host Virginia Tech next weekend.
17. Appalachian State at UMass +4.5: Appalachian State struggled for a decent part of the game last week against Coastal Carolina, and barely beat Idaho.
18. San Diego State at Hawaii +10: This is yet another chance to fade the Aztecs. Will three weeks in a row be too many?
19. UCLA at Washington -17: UCLA’s defense is simply not good. UCLA is not a good road team. Washington is off a bye.
20. Oklahoma State -7 at West Virginia: I look for the Cowboys to go up top and gas the Mountaineers. But the lookahead spot to Bedlam next week does bother me.