All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.
Season record: 42-35. A 14-6 Week 5 got my head above water and back to the 55 percent mark.
This is the time of year when to start paying attention to bye weeks. Some teams have played five straight games, while some have had a bit of a reset. Also keep in mind some major rivalry games happen next week, so beware the lookahead.
1. Louisville at NC State +3.5: Louisville has Lamar Jackson. It has Bobby Petrino, who is very good at scheming open big plays. And NC State gives up big plays. But Carter-Finley Stadium is a great night atmosphere, the Wolfpack defensive line is nasty, and QB Ryan Finley does not turn the ball over. Clemson beat Louisville a few weeks ago with a combination of an elite defensive line and safe passes.
2. Minnesota at Purdue -3: QB David Blough should return for Purdue. Minnesota was awful last week against Maryland’s third-string QB.
3. Miami at Florida State under 47: I’ve seen Florida State score 7, 21, and 26 points against good defenses. I’ve not seen Miami play a good defense.
4. Missouri +10.5 at Kentucky: Missouri had a bye week to regroup after a disastrous stretch. Getting on the road could actually be helpful for a team getting booed at home.
5. Notre Dame -14 at North Carolina: Notre Dame has a bye on deck and is coming off a game against Miami (Ohio), so there is no lookahead or hangover. UNC’s run defense is terrible, and Notre Dame has turned into one of the best running teams in the country.
6. ULM at Texas State +6.5: The Bobcats are explosive, but inefficient. ULM gives up big plays frequently.
7. Western Michigan -6.5 at Buffalo: Buffalo’s defense is good at preventing big plays, but is inefficient. That is fine, because Western Michigan struggles to create explosive plays but can go on controlled drives.
8. Eastern Michigan +13.5 at Toledo: I like this Toledo team a lot. The Rockets can really score. But Eastern Michigan’s defense is pretty salty, and this is a big number.
9. LSU +3.5 at Florida: LSU is getting back some key contributors on the defensive line. Florida’s offense without injured QB Luke Del Rio has struggled.
10. Arizona +7 at Colorado: Colorado’s offense is underwhelming and coming off an emotional loss to UCLA. Arizona is off a bye week.
11. Maryland at Ohio State -30: Maryland won with its third-string QB at Minnesota last week, but this week, the slipper gets stomped.
12. UCF at Cincinnati +17.5: UCF is in a massive letdown-
lookahead sandwich, coming off the win over Memphis and with the rivalry game at USF on deck. I screwed up and thought USF was on deck after misreading the schedule. But I posted it, so the bet stands.
13. SMU +7 at Houston: Houston has some serious QB issues right now.
14. Pitt at Syracuse -3.5: Syracuse is terribly inefficient, but is great at hitting big plays. And Pitt loves to give up big plays.
15. Michigan State at Michigan -10: In a battle of iffy offenses and stout defenses, I’ll take the team that is somewhat better on both sides.
16. Tulsa at Tulane -3.5: Tulsa has a terrible rushing defense. Tulane is a good running team.
17. San Diego State at UNLV +10.5: San Diego State is a great rushing team. UNLV’s rushing defense is better than its pass defense.
18. Kansas State +4 at Texas: Texas just cannot run the football, and having to throw it a bunch against the Wildcats is not a good recipe. Texas also has Oklahoma on deck.
19. Texas Tech at Kansas +18: Kansas is off a bye. This is a lot of points to lay on the road for a Texas Tech team off an emotional loss.
20. Arkansas -2 at South Carolina: South Carolina has scored 17, 13, and 17 points without star receiver Deebo Samuel.
21. Florida International at MTSU -9: I look for a bounce back after Middle Tennessee laid an egg last week against Florida Atlantic.
22. Ole Miss at Auburn -21: If Ole Miss couldn’t block Alabama, it can’t block Auburn. The War Eagle offense is getting on track.
23. Georgia at Vanderbilt +18: Georgia lines are now officially inflated. Alabama was laying just 19 on the road at Vanderbilt two weekends ago.