There was ANOTHER big story in the NFL last week. You know the one. And it overshadowed the best Sunday of football we’ve seen in a long, long time. Any complaints about the quality of play should’ve been squelched last week; upsets, underdogs, controversial calls … Week 3 had it all!
I also cannot overlook the fact that I made some outstanding picks last week. Like, some prescient stuff. I had the Falcons over the Lions. I took the Titans to beat the Seahawks. The Bears upset the Steelers, the Texans covered against the Patriots, and the Chargers let us down, of course.
On with the picks. Reminder, I use OddsShark for my betting info here. Home teams are in all caps.
Best bets for Week 4
FALCONS (-8) over Bills
Sure, the Bills upset the Broncos in Buffalo last weekend, but they’re on the road here, in a dome where the Falcons’ team is built to fly. The Bills are 1-3-2 against the spread on the road in their last six games. Sometimes the easiest path is not overthinking it.
BUCCANEERS (-3) over Giants
Most of the action is on the Giants this week. I just don’t understand it. Ask yourself: do you trust the Giants? Do you trust Ben McAdoo to give left tackle Ereck Flowers some help for a change?
PATRIOTS (-9) over Panthers
My only hesitation here is that the Panthers’ defense is actually pretty good. However, to cover a spread, they’ll also have to score points, which they just can’t do with any acumen right now. Cam Newton has been lost in the shuffle of an offensive philosophy change. Eventually, Mike Shula will go back to what the Panthers do best, but not until things really hit rock bottom and it’s too late.
Steelers (-3) over RAVENS
Jaguars (-3) over JETS
Lions (+2) over VIKINGS
Eagles (+2.5) over CHARGERS
DOLPHINS (+3) over Saints
This should be an easy pick. The Dolphins are a better team, but they also lost to the Jets last week. AND, this game is in London, another early one, and those things have a knack for being hard to predict.
Bengals (-3) over BROWNS
I want to be done betting on the Browns, but I just can’t help it. Plucky underdogs just suck you in, making you forget that these are STILL the Browns. However, the Bengals are 10-1 against the spread in when coming off consecutive losses. They’re a bad team, a bad organization, but the Browns are still worse.
BRONCOS (-3) over Raiders
For me, this is about as much of a tossup as you can find. Either one could win, but I’ll go with the Broncos here just because they’re at home.
CHIEFS (-7) over Washington
TEXANS (+2.5) over Titans
Underdog picks for the adventurous gambler
Colts (+13) over SEAHAWKS
I’m walking out on a big limb and jumping up and down, picking the Colts to cover a big ol’ spread against the Seahawks in Seattle. I’m not alone. A slight majority of bettors are with me, adding that much more weight to the delicate branch on which we stand.
But remember how bad the Seahawks looked against the 49ers at home? And remember, that was a big spread too. The Colts are actually 2-1 against the spread, while the Seahawks are 0-3.
Rams (+6) over COWBOYS
The Rams can score points now. But this is the Cowboys, not the 49ers or the Colts, so it’s going to be harder to put up 40 points. However, I feel pretty good about their ability to score enough points to cover a six-point spread.
49ers (+6.5) over CARDINALS
Credit Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer, they coached and played a much better game last week against the Cowboys, a Dallas team that’s a damn sight better than the 49ers. But they still haven’t covered a spread this season. And while the 49ers are not very good, they are good enough to cover here.